Back in April, the Broncos game against the Atlanta Falcons had 'gimme' written all over it, as in gimme the Broncos to win 30-16.
That was before Falcons rookie quarterback Matt Ryan settled in like a 10-year veteran, and the Broncos had to place calls to Floyd Little, Dave Preston and Sammy Winder looking for help in an injury-riddled backfield.
That was April, when I thought Broncos defensive end Elvis Dumervil would rank among the NFL leaders in sacks, and running back Michael Turner would be a much better fit for Denver's backfield instead of Atlanta.
It's November. There's moon-walking or back-talking here. We'll stick with Denver to win. Obviously, it won't be easy - especially against a young Falcons team that is strong on both sides of the ball.
The Broncos are banged-up and weak on defense. But have an offense that, when right, can ring up big numbers on the stat sheet and the scoreboard.
The formula for Denver to win in Atlanta on Sunday should be no different than it would be for a game played in Detroit, Indianapolis, Chicago, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Dallas or at Invesco Field at Mile High.
Here's the formula: open a substantial lead early and disrupt the Falcons' level of comfort on offense at the Georgia Dome, where the home team is 4-0 this season. Rattle Ryan, prevent the big plays and don't let running back Jerious Norwood get loose.
Oh, and block defensive end John Abraham and linebacker Keith Brooking all game long.
Also, Denver has to dominate on special teams. The Falcons cover well on kickoffs and punts. But Broncos rookie Eddie Royal has a 30.9 kick-return average and 12.7 average per punt return.
See, it's easy to create a scenario. But Bronco Fan ought to be watching for three P's in this game.
Passion. Poise. Purpose.
If the first-place Broncos don't bring all three to the table for four quarters on Sunday, they're going to walloped in Atlanta . . .
The New York Jets' 34-31 win over the New England Patriots on Thursday is big in the playoff picture. The AFC East could send three teams to the playoffs. That's why Sunday's game against Atlanta is huge for the Broncos, who haven't helped themselves thus far in potential playoff tie-breaker scenarios . . .
Yeah, I know. You're too busy scripting the Broncos' epitaph to realize they've been alone in first place in the AFC West the entire season . . .
Speaking of scripts, progress and the presence of Tony Scheffler in the offense -- Denver's first 15 offensive plays against the New England Patriots produced 15 yards. Against Cleveland, the Broncos' first 15 plays produced 155 yards -- starting with a 39-yard Jay Cutler pass to Scheffler, who returned to the lineup after three games . . .
Picks. Yeah, I haven't done NFL picks in a while. Let's do it. But first . . . the Nuggets' showed a little somethin'-somethin' with that win in Boston. It means something to have a 90-percent free-throw shooter like Chauncey Billups on the floor to close out games. Meanwhile, Allen Iverson and the Detroit Pistons showed NBA Fan that the L.A. Lakers still are about finesse. And finesse isn't going to win a ring . . .
NBA picks. Jets (a gimme, ya think?), Panthers, Eagles, Saints and the Baltimore Ravens upsetting the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants . . .
Only three of the Broncos' nine opponents this season currently have a winning record -- Tampa Bay, New England and Miami. Meanwhile, four of Atlanta's nine opponents this season currently have a winning record, and the Falcons have gone 1-3 against them -- Tampa Bay, Carolina, Chicago and Philadelphia . . .
Buccaneers, Dolphins, Packers and Colts, 49ers, Seahawks and Steelers. Tony Romo's back, and the Cowboys will beat the Redskins. In Buffalo, the Bills will beat the Browns.
Last but not least, I'm going with the host Jacksonville Jaguars to hand the Tennessee Titans their first loss of the season, for no other reason but this -- undefeated seasons have ended in Florida before (see 1985 Chicago Bears, who had an assistant coach named Jeff Fisher ). In case you don't know, Fisher is the Titans' head coach.
